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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."