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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and recent also-rans improving together. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing five other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still