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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd